… is to learn who predicted the truth. I think at the very least these debates about the fate of the world’s resources, are fascinating and among the most important questions of modern life. Sitting in one of the most resource rich areas on earth, Saskatchewan, (lacking only billions of people, a rain forest, and easy access to an ocean) I have a life where I’m on the inside looking out at those who lack the building blocks of industry and life. It seems obvious that “peak oil” is coming, but has it already arrived? Are we in the slow plateau that has been predicted by Big Oil as taking place in a probable 2025?
{ 2008 02 27 }
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Green Assassin Brigade | 27-Feb-08 at 11:54 am | Permalink
It will be hard to nail down the exact date when the peak is hit because it will bounce around a fair bit but the best numbers I’ve seen puts peak at last april.
We don’t need to hit peak anyways for major problems to arrise from such things as hurricanes knocking out the Gulf of Mex production, 80% of the worlds oils now belongs to National companies not the seven sisters and oil can and will be used more as a weapon to punish the west.
World demand is growing despite a plataeu in western demand. China India are growing quickly but the highest demand growth is from producing countries because they often subsidize prices to keep their public happy, cheap gas in these countries fuels the growth of car ownership. Some exporting countries like Mexico and Indonesia are actually in danger of becoming net exporters in the near future as demand growns and output slumps drastically
Also places like Saudi are building value added industry like aluminum smelters which is increasing their internal demand all while their supply has peaked.
We don’t need to hit peak if demand outgrows supply, the corn laden feacal matter will hit the fan much sooner than many believe.